The world is gradually preparing for full autonomy of transport. Although the trend has obvious technical and economic issues still remain. The competition of teams of developers and car companies to become the economic race between countries.
It is expected that the autonomization of transport will allow you to solve a number of problems: exhaust the risk of accidents occurring due to human factor, reduce congestion and provide an opportunity for the driver to become a passenger and do their business. According to some estimates, just a few decades unmanned vehicles will allow humanity in the amount of to save about $1 trillion, while the number of accidents, fatalities can reduce by 70%.
According to the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), by 2026, the total market for unmanned vehicles could reach about $42 billion In total global sales structure, the share of unmanned vehicles will be 12-13%. The market will be about 14 million self-driving cars, of which 500 thousand to be fully Autonomous. The McKinsey Global Institute in their forecasts came to the conclusion that the overall share of unmanned vehicles (both fully Autonomous and semi-Autonomous) will reach 15-20% by 2025.
Full autonomization of transport is expected by 2040. According to the report, published by PwC, this time all cars will be electric vehicles, and thus, solved two important problems for mankind is the environmental pollution and the exhaustion of natural fuel.
In an exclusive interview for Bitnewstoday.ru Retocar VIJAY, which is more than 10 years of experience in developing ground and flying Autonomous vehicles, also confirmed that all Autonomous cars will be electric, denoting the date of transition to a fully Autonomous transport system between 2025 and 2030, adding that tests of flying machines with vertical take-off and landing will begin in 2025.
The first attempts to keep up with the future
The priority for governments is not the question of development of the transport, and the relevant legislation governing its efficient operation.
In December 2015, California authorities announced the preliminary list of rules for unmanned vehicles. The government believes that to develop a legislative framework is needed before transportation becomes available. In trying to keep up with the US and to accelerate the development and adoption of technology China also announced a set of national rules for testing self-driving cars.
But here the race has become increasingly fierce. The whole world is waiting for the launch, which was planned by the company Mercedes together with Nvidia at the end of 2018-beginning of 2019 in California. During the tests in the cabin for the safety net will be the driver.
On the world market and the development of Autonomous cars is also actively involved in Google, MIG (Made in Germany), AKTIV, VisLab, Cognitive Technologies, Tesla Motors.
Taxi driver or security guard — test, robotaxi
27 August 2018 in Tokyo is already operating the world’s first service unmanned taxi. Although the machines run in fully Autonomous mode and make maneuvers and stop in traffic without human intervention, security provides behind the wheel driver. Besides him, the cabin also has an assistant. The trip costs 1500 yen (13.5 USD) one way the established route is 5.3 km away.
Perhaps, the precautions dictated by what happened this year high-profile accidents with fatalities with the participation of unmanned vehicles, Uber and Tesla Motors.
May 29, the former head of the National service for security of traffic of the USA mark ROSEKIND said that the deaths of people at the stage of testing Autonomous cars can not be avoided. A manufacturer of automotive components Aptiv (formerly Delphi) in conjunction with ridderinkhof service Lyft has launched 30 Autonomous cars in Las Vegas. There will also be the driver, which in case of technical failure will be able to take control of the vehicle. But in the short term, the company wants to deliver passengers from this “insurance”.
5G — hope rising system
The primary issue that prevents the world to make the transition to full autonomy of transport is the update rate of the GPS map and the real situation on the road. Partially this problem can solve cloud services and constant exchange of information between cars. But here the question arises fast data transfer and availability of continuous Internet connection.
Greg KERR, the founder of the “green” blockchain of the company, in an exclusive interview for Bitnewstoday.ru said that such congestion is inevitable because of the incredible computational requirements that cause delay in networks. “Today the Autonomous vehicle must interact with the centralized computing node. The requirements of this system will quickly overload the network and allow you to make millions of decisions in real time required to process the morning’s trips.”
Undoubtedly, the main hope to build an Autonomous transport system is now the new 5G connection, the chief merit of which is a device-oriented approach.
Vehicles will be equipped with sensors that read various information about road conditions. Based on these data, the management of the trip can be done in automatic mode.
Mobile operator Verizon Mobile announced the launch of a 5G network as early as October 1 of this year. We move at the speed of mobile Internet of new generation — up to 300Mbps per second, and the peak — to 1Gbps.
Here winning the technology race with China: OPPO has decided to manufacture smartphones of the future. The mobile device will easily support the network format 5G. In this technological struggle, China is rapidly overtaking the US as the main leader of smartphones Apple is lagging behind at least a couple of years due to the fact that Apple devices still don’t go beyond 3G and 4G.
DLT will create the effect of Darwin
The second obstacle related to the issue of the amount of transmitted and stored information, according to Greg KERR, can be solved by using the DLT-technology:
“Artificial intelligence at its heart and machine learning needed in the data: the more, the bigger the learning. The blockchain and other distributed technologies form unprecedented levels of databases. Among industry competitors will have the effect of Darwin, where organizations that are more its operations will be carried out on distributed systems will create more data to monitor the machines. Organizations using native monitoring and improve the efficiency determined by the computer and, thus, will exceed competitors”, — he said.
At the end of January 2018, Ericsson announced its intention to test unmanned buses in the streets of Stockholm. The company enlisted the support of the Swedish public transport operators and a number of local companies. The project aims to test Autonomous transport in real conditions. Self-driving buses will travel among ordinary cars, cyclists and pedestrians.
Greg KERR, who is also a former analyst for the Pentagon, believes that software development for distributed hosting and computer peripheral networks will evolve to make our highways for its network nodes that enhance as participation in the network increasing the number of nodes (vehicles and passengers from IoT devices). “Cars will make payments to each other on our roads to facilitate the necessary calculations, dividing the computational load among the participating devices, such as cars, street lights and road signs. In the near future, stop at the stop sign will include the implementation of a smart-contract between the sign and your vehicle. In addition, the calculations necessary for navigation of the vehicle behind you will occur between your car and the next”, — he told Bitnewstoday.ru
Continuing the theme of unmanned transport, see the following article: how to look like a flying Autonomous vehicles and how technology will change the future of transportation.